While Neil Patrick Harris’ inappropriate dress comment at last night’s Oscars was unpredictable, 83% of the winners were correctly predicted by David Rothschild who works as an economist for Microsoft’s research lab in New York. He tweeted in celebration after accurately predicting twenty out of twenty-four winners.
— David Rothschild (@DavMicRot) February 23, 2015
David Rothschild has a website called PredictWise.com that uses crowd data to analyze likely outcomes of events. Their FAQ section of their website explains that “Rather than try to be experts that attempt to do better than the “wisdom of crowds,” we try to find and aggregate that crowd wisdom.”
David Rothschild’s research lab in New York is also the engine that powers Cortana results and predictions. Microsoft often has Cortana and Bing predict major events as a chance to advertise their search engine. They have predicted the Oscars, the Grammys, the Super Bowl, the World Cup, and more as a way to increase their service’s presence in the public eye.